A VC: mobile

Mar 18, 2013

Short Term Thinking vs Long Term Thinking

One of the mistakes I often see in business is short term thinking vs long term thinking. It struck me over the weekend when I saw this tweet:

Last quarter, Samsung's net profit from its mobile division alone exceeded Google's total profit from all operations (including adwords).
— dustin curtis (@dcurtis) March 14, 2013

Sure Samsung is making a killing on handset sales right now. So is Apple. That goes to their bottom line and then onto their balance sheet. And apparently Google isn't making any money in mobile.

Today.

But when I think about who is developing the strongest franchise in mobile, it is obviously Google. They have gmail on so many phones. They have google maps on so many phones. They are getting the majority of searches on mobile phones. And that doesn't even begin to address Android itself. It is the dominant mobile operating system around the world. Just think about all the data they are getting from this enormous mobile footprint they have assembled.

You can change handsets pretty easily when all your data is in the cloud. There is no moat around a hardware only franchise these days. But the software you choose to use on your phone is different. There the moat is much bigger. And where your data goes in the cloud is even more important. Changing that out requires a major effort for an end user.

So my feeling is that Google is playing the long game in mobile while Apple is missing the cloud piece and Samsung is just a hardware player at this point. And the stock market understands that.

Comments (View) / posted in mobile /

Mar 8, 2013

We Heart WiFi

One of the biggest problems at SXSW is lack of a good mobile data connection. The carrier networks are overloaded by the sheer density of people using their phones. And the SXSW WiFi is similarly overloaded. This year, there will be a third option. Look for a free wireless service on your phone called We Heart WiFi:

We <3 WiFi "Heartspots" @ SXSW 2013
We will be at SXSW demonstrating the potential of "Super WiFi" on March 8-10.
Each Heartspot is powered by 100% open wireless technologies -- connected to a single gigabit fiber backbone via Super WiFi backhaul links.
No cables, just wireless. All using open spectrum.
The Heartspots there to give people fast wifi, and to demonstrate what's possible with open wireless technologies.

One of my favorite things about these heartspots is they are mobile. Since the backhaul from the WiFi access point to the Internet backbone is "Super WiFi", these heartspots can be taken to the places where there is most need for good WiFi.

"Super WiFi" is the unofficial name for the next generation of wireless sharing technologies like WiFi. Unlike your cell phone, WiFi uses open (or 'unlicensed') spectrum available to anyone with a device approved by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for any use. Some years ago, the FCC opened unused television channels (called "TV whitespaces") for the next generation of "Super WiFi" technology on a limited basis. Last week, the FCC finally approved this new technology for nationwide use -- making massively improved WiFi possible. However, the spectrum needed to realize this vision is at risk.

Go to this page and learn all about Super WiFi, the challenges facing spectrum reform, and the opportunities that come from more open WiFi. It also explains how you can find We Heart WiFi heartspots while you are in Austin for SXSW.

I am extremely proud that USV is one of the creators of this project and has supported it financially.

Comments (View) / posted in mobile, Politics /

Mar 6, 2013

Why The Unlocking Phones Debate Is Important

The White House and the FCC have recently come out in favor of allowing consumers to unlock their phones. That is a really good thing. Let's hope that the rest of the regulators in this country join them in this stance.

I would go even further. I would assert that rooting, jailbreaking, and other actions that users take to gain total control of their device should be entirely legal in this country.

Here is why. We need to defend the concept of general purpose computing. General purpose computing is the idea that the owner of the computer can get access to the base computing functions on the device. Rewind to the time of the homebrew computer club. Hackers and coders were building their own computing devices and putting software on them and making what became personal computers. Personal computers have evolved a lot since then, most recently ending up in our pockets and purses, but they remain personal to the core.

In recent years we have seen more and more attempts to separate us from the core computing functions on our personal computing devices. The iPhone is stock full of them and that is the fundamental reason I will never use one. The same is true of the iPad. So iOS users jailbreak their phones. The evasion iPhone jailbreak is on 23 million phones now.

Android phones and tablets are better, but the carriers who sell these Android devices play Apple's game pretty well themselves. Getting a Nexus with a clean build of Android what I do. Others cleanse their phones with Cyanogen or other mods. All of this activity shows that many of us want to control our devices, configure them the way we want, and put the software on them that we want to put on them.

It feels to me and other industry observers I talk to that we are moving away from this notion of general purpose computing to some other place where we use devices that are controlled by others and that we can't truly make our own. This is a dangerous trend in the technology world and one we need to resist.

I feel a growing divide between the users, who are rooting, unlocking, and jailbreaking in record numbers, and the device makers and marketers who are tightening up the screws on their devices ever tighter. I stand with the users in this fight and unlock, root, and jailbreak as much as I can. You should too. And our governement should make this activity legal so that we do not face any adverse consequences from this behavior.

Comments (View) / posted in mobile, Venture Capital and Technology /

Feb 20, 2013

Simplicity, The Emerging UI, and Machine Learning

Long title. Short post.

Daring Fireball says:

The utter simplicity of the iOS home screen is Apple’s innovation. It’s the simplest, most obvious “system” ever designed. It is a false and foolish but widespread misconception that “innovation” goes only in the direction of additional complexity.

"Designed" being the important word in that quote. Because we aren't done designing user interfaces. I think we are just getting started.

This piece in Wired got my head nodding because I am experiencing it every day on my Android phone. I find myself typing less and less on Android because the voice recognition is so damn good. And the type ahead prompts are like reading my mind. Instead of typing, I find myself selecting the next word more often than not.

Machine learning is the key innovation here. And in that area Google is so far ahead of every big company (and most small companies) that it is hard to imagine how they are not going to out innovate on the emerging user interfaces of our mobile future (glasses, watches, etc, etc).

Comments (View) / posted in mobile, Venture Capital and Technology /

Feb 17, 2013

Google Now

AVC regulars know that I am a long time Android user and a big fan of the Google mobile OS. A few months ago we turned on Google Now for our USV Google Apps account and I started getting Google Now on my phone.

At first, I didn't pay much attention to it. It's not in your face, which I like.

But last week, I got my first mobile notification from Google Now. I was at an event in SLC at The Leonardo. I had a dinner meeting in my calendar at 6:15. At roughly 6pm, Google Now sent me a mobile notification that I needed to leave because the place I needed to be at 6:15pm was a 9 minute drive. I was impressed. That's value add.

Then I started using Google Now a bit more. I've used it like Siri and it works really well. I've always thought Google's voice recognition on Android was excellent. I've mostly used it to compose text messages when I am out and can't focus on the phone to type. It works really well.

But Google's voice recognition, combined with Google Now, Google Maps, and Google Search is really impressive. I don't use Siri but my kids have all given it a try and mostly dropped it. I suspect Google Now might be better than Siri.

If you have an Android phone/OS that supports Google Now. I suggest you make sure it is turned on for your phone and that you give it a try. I think you will come away impressed. I sure was.

Comments (View) / posted in mobile /

Feb 13, 2013

HBO Go

Yesterday as I was getting off a plane, I saw this tweet on my phone and replied to it:

@jwklemanski yessssss @sai_tools @stevekovach
— Fred Wilson (@fredwilson) February 12, 2013

Jason probably tweeted that news at me because of the HBO No Go post from last August in which I expressed my exasperation that I could not airplay the HBO Go content from my iPad to my TV via AppleTV. So that nuttiness has been addressed by HBO. Nicely done HBO.

But there's more to ask of them. It would be nice if the HBO Go app came pre-installed on connected devices like AppleTV, Roku, Boxee. It would also be nice if HBO Go supported AllShare so Samsung users could have the same thing that Apple users have.

HBO’s Eric Kessler said yesterday at an AllThingsD event that "Our long-term goal for Go is to be on all devices and all platforms." That is exactly right. That's what Netflix has done for years now and that is what HBO needs to do.

Slowly but surely HBO is evolving to being more like Netflix and that's a good thing for its subscribers. Now if we could only subscribe without having to go through a cable company. But we've already talked about that this month and I don't expect that to happen so quickly for all the reasons we discussed in the comments to that post.

Comments (View) / posted in mobile, Television /

Feb 12, 2013

Retention

I guess this should be a Feature Friday post but I write my posts based on what I am thinking about first thing in the morning and this is what I am thinking about right now.

I just went to Twitter like I always do first thing in the morning and this is what I saw in my timeline:

Right at the top of my timeline, Twitter is telling me that my friend Mark is active again on his Mediaeater handle. And they follow that with the suggestion that I tweet at him. This is the first time I've seen this kind of messaging from Twitter. And I like it.

If you go back to my 30/10/10 post, you will see that most web services and mobile apps only get 30% of their registered users to use the app at least once a month. The other 70% have largely gone away. But it doesn't mean they are gone for good. Getting them back should be a primary goal of any consumer web or mobile company.

Twitter has been working on this problem for years. I recall getting a presentation from their growth team at least three years ago that detailed how they were working on this problem. And they are still working on this problem. Most likely they will always be working on this problem.

You can email or spam in some other way your inactive users and that might work. But what you do once they come back is way more important. You have to figure out how to make the experience better than it was when they used it previously. Some of that will likely be that the product is much better because your and your team have improved it a lot. But some of that should be an engaging experience that somehow they did not get before.

When we get our various portfolio companies together, I like to ask them if they can identify one or two metrics that separates their successful and engaged users from their unsuccessful and inactive users. Most of the time the metric has something to do with engagement (they left a comment, they got a reply to a comment, they got a like on their photo, they had people follow them, etc, etc). Engaging with real humans, not just the machine, is the key in social systems. And most systems are social in some way.

Your inactive users are important cohort to focus on. There must have been something that got them to sign up for your service in the first place. So focus on getting them back, retaining them, and most importantly, engaging them.

Comments (View) / posted in mobile, Web/Tech /

Feb 8, 2013

Draw Quest

Drawing is one form of creative expression that has not made a rapid transition to the digital/online world. The tablet may well change that. Paper is one of the most amazing tablet apps I have seen. It is beautifully made and the art that people are creating on it is inspiring.

It seems like there is even more potential that can be unlocked with drawing. Draw Something showed that everyone can draw something (no pun intended). But Draw Something is a two person game. It is not massively multiplayer and social in the way that Twitter, Instagram, and Foursquare are.

Enter DrawQuest. DrawQuest is the creation of our portfolio company Canvas. One of the most popular features in the Canvas community is the drawing challenge. The company regularly sends out a themed challenge and the community responds to it. That inspired DrawQuest.

DrawQuest is a tablet app, initially for the iPad only. After signing up, you receive daily challenges, you draw them, submit, and then you can see what others have done with the challenge. You can like, play back someone else's drawing, follow users, etc.

DrawQuest is a game in the same way that Foursquare is a game. It’s fun and engaging and you get feedback on your creations. I believe this kind of interaction will lead more people to draw on their tablet in the same way that Instagram has led more people to take photos on their camera.

You can download DrawQuest for your iPad here and read more about the app on the company’s blog.

Comments (View) / posted in mobile, Venture Capital and Technology /

Feb 5, 2013

Hailo

It's no secret that USV invested in Hailo at the end of last year.

What is less well known is why we would do that.

Hailo announced the financing today and also a bunch of impressive hires for their US and Asia operations and they also disclosed a bunch of numbers for the first time.

Hailo is as big in their home city (London) as Uber is in SF and across the ten markets they are in, Hailo has similar scale as Uber in total transactions per day, week, month, and year. Hailo is different than Uber though. They focus exclusively on the regulated part of the market and as a result they can offer lower prices and a higher liquidity of cars to their riders. The power of this model becomes clear if you travel to London and compare the Uber experience to the Hailo experience.

Another big factor in our investment process was the "I told you so". In late 2011 as Hailo was just launching in London, the team came to see us and told us everything they planned to do in 2012. We were impressed by the team, their backgrounds, and their attitude and energy. But we had big concerns about everything they said they were going to do in 2012. A year later, they came back to see us and not only had they done everything they said they were going to do, they actually did a few things more than that. I referenced this story in a post I wrote at the end of last year. Now the company in the story has been named. They will be added to the investments page on usv.com today.

And maybe most importantly, we believe in large networks of users that have the power to transform big markets. We've long thought that the ubiquity of the smartphone will enable transactional networks between buyers and sellers and it turns out the urban transportation market is one of the first big markets that is rapidly being transformed by large smartphone networks. We are excited to be able to invest in one of them.

Comments (View) / posted in mobile, NYC, Venture Capital and Technology, Web/Tech /

Jan 25, 2013

Feature Friday: The Checkout Form

One of the most aggravating things about commerce online and on mobile is the inconsistent checkout experience site to site and app to app. It's one of the many things that keeps me shopping at Amazon and clicking on the PayPal button when its available. That and stored payment credentials.

Last week I saw something that makes me think we may be heading in the right direction. Stripe, the fast growing payments company, introduced Stripe Checkout. Now, if you choose to use it, Stripe will give you a standard checkout form for both web and mobile. It's a few lines of code in your app and Stripe takes care of the rest. It is optimized for the user experience and for the device. And they plan to keep optimizing it so that developers who use it will see better and better conversion rates.

But this is also great for the buyer. Now when I see this button below, I know I am going to pay with Stripe and I know what I am in for in terms of user experience.

It's like the good housekeeping seal of approval. I know I am going to get a simple and easy checkout flow.

The next thing I'd like to see from Stripe is stored payment credentials. Then they would enter the land of Amazon and PayPal for me for sure.

Comments (View) / posted in mobile, Web/Tech /