Thoughts From The Eliptical Trainer
Its been a while since I've done one of these posts. A lot's been going on and I find myself on the trainer thinking outloud.
1) The credit markets are thawing (see the ted spread chart on fredwilson.vc for a visual of the thaw). The equity markets are stabilizing But that doesn't mean they won't continue to go down. As investors start to focus on earnings next year and beyond, we may see a continued drift down. The Nasdaq is down 33pcnt ytd, $GOOG is down 45pcnt ytd, and $AAPL is down 50pcnt ytd. The market has repriced equties and that impact will be felt far and wide
2) The sooner we accept this new reality and deal with it, the better off we will all be
3) The next 12 months may be a period of the 'haves and have nots'. Last night the Spotted Pig was mobbed but the new hot place down the block was not. There are bulletproof restaurants (the pig), bulletproof ad models (paid search) and bulletproof brands (all things apple). In tough times the money will keep flowing to the best companies and will stop flowing to the worst. Be a 'must have' and don't be a 'have not' in this environment.
4) I think Obama has the election pretty wrapped up absent a major external event. I think my parents might vote for him. They are army people, lifelong republicans, who are in their late 70s/early 80s. But if they vote for Obama, they are not really voting for him, they are voting against the GOP and what is has become and what it has done to this country. Obama's mandate, if he wins, will be thin and he should not overplay it. He must win these skeptics who held their nose and voted for him if he wants to govern with a real mandate. And that won't be easy and he must govern from the far center which is where our country really is right now. And I think he can and will do that.
5) The earthquake we have witnessed in the capital markets in the past month may be part of a tectonic shift that is happening in the geopolitical world. I am heavily influenced in this thinking by Fareed Zakaria but it just makes sense to me. The US has come violently back to economic parity with the rest of the developed world. Look at who is buying up some of the back office operations that are coming available in the dismantling of the US investment banks - the indian companies that provided the outsourcing contracts to them We live in a global economy now and we are not the unchallenged boss of it.
6) The web and the global internet can be a powerful force in helping to change american society. We can learn to save, invest, live healthier, and more energy efficiently and we can do this in partnership with like minded people all over the world. I am not a utopian but I am powerfully moved by things like grameen, kiva, donors choose, etsy, amee, livemocha, craigslist, wikipedia, google translate, and many other web services that can and will make our world a better one.
7) So I am optimistic and I am done with my workout and its time to get to work
Sorry for the lack of links in this post. I did it on my bberry (soon to be G1!). I'll try to update with links later.
11:41 Eastern: Update with links done