Tivo vs The Web

Saul Hansell has a story today on Tivo’s plans to allow downloading of Internet video onto their DVRs. It’s an interesting strategy for Tivo although I think it’s not likely to be successful.

As much as I like my Tivo, I think it’s a lot more likely that I am going to have a PC in some form next to my TV in five years than a Tivo.

Tom Rogers, CEO of Tivo, told Saul:

Video is interesting for a certain segment to see on a laptop or PC. But for a majority of people, it’s not going to be television until it’s on the TV set.

A certain segment? – Yeah like over 50 million people in the US and growing every day. Like about 10 times the number of people who use a Tivo.

It’s not just kids. I know tons of people my age and older who surf YouTube, Google Video, and other online video destinations every day.

The fact is that watching video on the Internet is superior in many ways to traditional television, even with a Tivo. You can’t engage with TV delivered via a set top box. How do you email a TV show to a friend with a set top box? How to you comment on it? How do you favorite it? How do you subscribe to it? How do you embed it on your myspace page, blog, etc?

So instead of downloading Internet video to a Tivo, I think I’ll put a Mac Mini next to my TV and surf web video on my TV. That sounds like a lot more fun.

Comments

[Ari N]

Seems like a necessary move for Tivo and the right step towards the uber-media box we all want sitting next to the TV. I agree that internet video's ability to engage the viewer is a critical element, but there is also a novelty factor right now. Culturally TV is a "lean-back" medium where people just want to be entertained and online viewing is "lean-in" where you are interactive and engaged. We need to be able to do both in the same medium. Once video and audio quality of downloaded/streamed content caches up for the masses (yes, you can download HD-quality today but it's limited) so that your not looking at 640 pixels blown up on a 42" plasma, the set-side box that does VoD, HD, DVR and web video will be the holy grail.

[Juan Lopez-Valcarcel]

I wonder when TiVo will start making better use of the IP address on the Series 2.

So far some of the online services have been pretty lame (e.g. checking Yahoo weather) but others have shown the promise of things to come (e.g. the last.fm application to listen to your personalized radio on the TV).

The press release talks about online video being delivered via the TiVo hard drive, but maybe some of your techie readers can shed light on whether the IP connectivity (aka Tivo Home Media Engine) could potentially be used to deliver low-bandwidth video directly to the TV.

[Erik Schwartz]

The dichotomy is picture quality.

People with HD will watch anything in HD. The hate watching low res stuff. But until there's substantially more bandwidth around, downloading and watching HD programming can't be an impulse decision.

I really don't know how this is going to play out...

[Ask Bjørn Hansen]

Hear hear. We use a Mac Mini hooked up to a projector to watch DVDs, time shifted TV (via MythTV on a Linux box). And of course for the occasional downloaded or streamed video from the web or bittorrent.

It's great to have IMDb just a few keystrokes away after watching a movie, but mostly it's great to have a device that's ready to play all sorts of content and that easily integrates with the rest of our network.

We have a regular TV too, but the only thing hooked up to it is a playstation. :-)

- ask

[Ask Bjørn Hansen]

Erik, there's lots of bandwidth on the airwaves. :-) With MythTV (or eyeTV or HDTV TiVo I suppose) it's easy to "use the bandwidth" to "download" programming.

- ask

[Robert Dewey]

I personally believe most of the stuff should be automated. For example, if I'm watching a movie, then I should be quickly hit info and get the info from IMDb. I should be able to capture a guide from the web. I should be able to save my "TiVo'd" videos onto web-based drive so that I can access them from any other compatible device.

As for YouTube on TV - I agree that it's a "lean in" medium. If you could somehow boil down the interface into a point-and-click interface, then that would be absolutely great. Perhaps onscreen alphanumerics to help you narrow your choices down (our guide has the ability to search shows by title).

As for interactivity, like sending videos to friends, that would be easy. Just load in personal information (it could be pulled from a web drive) and point and click. Watching an awesome show? Click "send" and the recommendation shows up on Grandmas TV. Perhaps see what other people are watching (i.e. a social network).

I could go on and on with ideas. If this was connected via a web-based storage drive, the configuration could be held remotely and accessible from a device (say your PDA)... That would essentially allow you to utilize a device (PDA, PC, etc) as a remote, with the ability to go in and choose programming or "social networking" configurations, among other things. Seamless integration is the future.

Of course, this would mean that you would need a new set-top-box with such capability.

[Jeffrey McManus]

I don't see a reason to have a PC as a part of my entertainment center. At our house, we have our laptops in our laps while we watch TV and that works well for us. We also spend a few hours a week watching internet video that I download, convert, and upload to our Tivo so we can watch it on the big screen. My five year old would not be able to handle this if it weren't on a Tivo.

[Oskar Austegard]

Fred, I'm surprised by the confrontational tone of your post - I think you're getting a bit too hung up on the "certain segment" phrase. As Ari so eloquently puts it, video on the net at the moment, when restricted to a PC that is too often on a desk, IS "lean in". It's not something you do to relax and kick back with the family.

There's a dirth of equipment at the moment that is able to bring the world of the PC (or Mac, if you like) to the TV, and TiVo is at least trying. My take is that this is great news - it's not TiVo vs. the Web, it's TiVo PLUS the Web.

[Dan Putt]

I'm happy to see Tivo do something that says they are at least aware of video on the internet, but they still are way behind. There is no doubt that tivo's dvr software is the best known and most loved, but that is short lived.

What I would love to see from tivo is for them to become more like the "firefox" of DVR by opening up their software for millions of software developers who could build extensions for themselves and everyone else. I always read comments about tivo that start with "I love my tivo, but I wish it would do this..." If tivo let others build their own extensions there would be tons of add-on features that let people get exactly what they want out of their tivo box (better web integration, p2p streaming tv integration, tivo/skype, more rss feeds, better orb connection, etc)...and it would take the pressure of innovation off the shoulders of a management team that appears to be behind the times.

[Nic Brisbourne]

As Ali says, I'm not sure where else Tivo can go. Kinda like AOL though, just because it is the right move doesn't mean it will succeed.

That said I can see the need for local storage of media next to your TV with an easy 'sit back' interface being popular for the next couple of years. After that bandwidth and home AV standards will probably get to the point where it become redundant.

[CoryS]

Almost 10 years ago I met a guy that had hooked up a wireless keyboard w/ roller mouse to an overhead projector and could either watch TV + do work on a manual switch. Even today, we're still talking about how cool it would be to be able to do it, but still can't see the way to get it all.

Microsoft's strategy of X-Box being the TV media box + Zune + a decent store + media center software is definitely an interesting direction. Apple, Sony, Tivo and others have an emerging issue coming down the pike with MS which may just be on to the web store-to-TV path in a way that is not just a iTV or MiniMac next to a TV.

With hard drive prices falling through the floor, and with cable/optical networks finding ways to deliver 20+ Mbps, the distributed v. centralized media debate is developing right in front of us. Like iTunes and iPod simplicity, the devices will need to be easy and logical.

Good stuff.

[KV]

Good post, Fred. I had a Tivo when they first came out, and have long since switched to a Time Warner HD DVR, i'm more satisfied with this than i was with Tivo. i think tivo is pussyfooting around this market and is missing the boat big time - they need to take more aggressive action if they want to compete with the Comcasts/Warners of the world. downloading video to the dvr box is a step, but its a sideways step, not a forward step - going directly to the 'my favorites' page on youtube will always be better than downloading that content to a dvr - tv will become two way ip, i agree with you - the downloading model is probably not going to go anywhere, especially with gen x, y's who don't have the patience for that kind of model, we expect favs, ratings, emailability, embedability, blogs, posts, all in real time when we want it, where we want it. the download model seems arcane.

[kip]

I think you guys may be overlooking the reality that Jobs and co have put together at Apple: content is king. Rhapsody has a superior model but don't have the content or at least its unknown to the non user. Tivo has an inferior set top box when looked at standard features. They need to adopt the models found in videogames and make a business off of reselling viewing data. For Rhapsody, they need to be installed via a partnership with Microsoft as I coulnd't find Lars,Kirk, James and Jason let alone John and Paul.

The new model put into place by microsoft is interesting adn I agree it could potentially allow the 360 to become the hub of the family room. BUT their add on hardware model is pricing the 20gig xbox 360 with additional external dvd drive over the cost of a sony ps3 with a 20 gig or even a 60 gig.

By contrast Sony is the sleeping giant: they have a huge music catalog and movie catalog(aka their own content so rights payouts are waived) and they apply to a bigger demographic than apple has been able to do with Disney(bet youwish you had the Weintsteins now!). The hype about PS3 not being backwards compatible should be seen in the relative eye aka 200 titles/8000 total titles whereby its less than 3% of overall discs out there.

So I'm long SNE, long Nintendo, neutral on TIVO(they need to change their model and include a lifetime subscrption for every new box to get set tops) and short msft once the bugs from vista arrive and their multi tiered model put the kebash on using their products.

[iain]

* PC vs Set Top Box is gonna argued for ages, guaranteeing that both will exist for a long time.

* Its the age-old battle between a) flexible & expensive vs simple & low-cost

* I still wish that I bought the Mac Mini for my new TV 2 years ago. But at that time I was told that my Sony TVs HDMI port wasn't compatible with Apples version. Anyways, I saved $cash & I bought the I/O Data Networked DVD player then and have loved it.

* But even if the I/O Data box is awesome, it still is limited in what it can do. It can't do all the stuff that Fred talks about, and that bugs me.

* If I had Mac Mini as my set-top box, I could be using Google video on my TV.

[Jim Griffin]

The set-top box is a PC, and vice versa, albeit with differing user interfaces. The user interface and functionality of each is converging towards the other, with DVRs acting more like a PC (network awareness, ancillary functions like RSS, messaging) and the PC acting more like a DVR (myth, media center, TitanTV, et al).

[alan patrick]

Hi

We've done quite a bit of work on PC to TV systems, which we call MyPCTV as a project type. Its been fascinating to see how over 2006 thismhas changed from something that gets you laughed out of VC offices to something VC's are blogging about ;)

We blogged about some of our work here on broadstuff and Nic Brisbourne and Ihave been kicking it around awhile too.