Is Bill Gates the Cat with Nine Lives?

Conventional wisdom says tech companies rise and fall with the waves of innovation that lash the shores of the technology business. There are so many examples of this that I won't bother to repeat them.

But there is one cat out there that has so far avoided that fate. His name is Bill Gates and his company, Microsoft, is being talked about quite a bit in the blog world and the business rags this week.

Let's go back and look at the three lives that Microsoft has had so far.

PC 1.0 - Bill invented PC 1.0 when he got IBM to adopt his OS (not even sure it was his OS, but we'll leave that one alone) as the standard for the PC platform.

PC 2.0 - Apple created PC 2.0, threatening Microsoft's dominance. Bill retooled Microsoft to respond to the threat. The result was Windows and Office, the two franchises that even today power most of the Company's revenue and profits.

Web 1.0 - Netscape made the browser mainstream threatening Microsoft's dominance of the desktop. Now the browser was the place people lived on a computer. Bill went after Netscape with a vengeance, bundled Internet Explorer into the Windows OS, and put Netscape out of business and got himself in trouble with the Feds.

So far, this cat has had three lives.

So now we've got Web 2.0.

Is this cat going to get a fourth life? That's what inquiring minds want to know. It's a $280bn question.

Web 2.0 - Google invents the ultimate disruptive free web service with search and shows how it can be monetized like hell with paid search. Every entrepreneur worth their salt takes the LAMP stack and builds a lighweight web service to try their hand at the same trick. This isn't cool for Microsoft at all.

So the question is whether Microsoft's response, coming next year in the form of Vista (fka Longhorn) and supplemented with .net, Avalon, Ajax, and a host of other interesting web service oriented technologies, will bring them back to the leadership position they believe belongs to them.

My friend Brad Feld spent a day at PDC and came away saying that 2006 will be the year of Microsoft. Read his post, because it got me thinking, and it might get you thinking.

Earlier yesterday I had lunch with a friend who predicted that Vista will put a lot of these lightweight web services out of business the way that the Windows/Office juggernaut put a lot of PC software companies out of business in the early 90s and pissed the VCs off mightily.

So some smart people are clearly thinking that this cat has at least four lives.

But I am not so sure. I didn't go to PDC, I didn't work at Microsoft, I am not "technical", but my gut says that we are in a different place now and its going to be much harder for Bill to put this genie back in the bottle.

People ask me why all these smart developers are leaving Microsoft. I don't think its the "rats leaving the simking ship" phenomenon because Microsoft is not a sinking ship and even if it doesn't have nine lives will live a long time on its Windows/Office franchise.

I think its because software is becoming "organic". I believe Google started this movement. They released a free web service that people responded to in an emotional way. That created a phenomenon that drew developers and users to the Google franchise. Google opened up their APIs so people could build businesses on top of them. Now they have a whole ecosystem. This has happened with other software platforms too - Craigslist, Flickr, Skype, etc.

Microsoft may want to be part of this "organic" software world, but its not in their DNA. And I think many of their leading technology minds get this new way of being and want to be part of it. So they leave, some to Google, many to do startups.

Consumers get this too. They don't want to be locked in any more. Microsoft is the master of lock in. They want open software, open source, open potential. You don't have to look any farther than Firefox' market share to see this happening in the consumer market.

CIOs might not get this yet. I think Microsoft's franchise is the CIO going forward because they are risk adverse and are the least likely to move to this new developing organic software model. But consumers will lead the companies they work for into this world whether they like it or not. And eventually people will be using wikis and web based email and calendaring apps in their offices and Office will slowly matter less and less.

That's my view.

So does this cat have nine lives? It depends on the quality of life he's looking for.

I can see an IBM-like scenario for Microsoft in its fourth and possibly fifth life. But I can't see them at the top of the technology hill planting their flag again for the fourth time next year. It's just not going to happen that way this time.

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Posted September 17, 2005 in Venture Capital and Technology

Comments

I'm not savvy enough to be able to predict whether Mr. gates and MSFT have more lives, but I do know they have $40 BILLION in cash, and add much to their cash horde second by second, regardless of dividend payments, and that alone means they can disrupt, conquer -- or simply buy -- their way in to any market or movement they choose. I don't think MSFT is any smarter or more sophisticated or even more tough than anyone else. Pretty much a chimp could sail that ship and succeed for years, and with super smart folks like Messrs Gates and Ballmer et. al. at the helm, sailing atop that tsunami of cash, I wouldn't look for them to do anything but continue to dominate for a long time...

Posted by: steve | Sep 17, 2005 8:34:19 AM

Fred - What do you think distribution forces play into Microsoft's future? Google doesn't need distribution to bring their product to their customer, but Microsoft does. (nor do your other favorite services need distribution) There's little friction in getting someone to go to a websit versus getting them to buy software, install it and deal with all the pain and suffering as a result.

Second question - where does Apple play into Microsoft's future? While Apple is still a relatively small player, there's no doubt that they are a brand with power and one that's gaining marketshare. Unlike Microsoft, their endeavors off of the computing platform (iPod, etc.) have gained them not only dominance in that market but also another profit center - something that Microsoft hasn't been good at.

Third - Where has Microsoft scored a home run in terms of online services? (not the browser - the destination address)

Posted by: David | Sep 17, 2005 8:55:41 AM

Talking about tsunamis, disruption and clash of the Titans: what I wouldn't give to see Google release a quasi web based operating system!

Heck, that would be one vicious pub brawl. Better watch out for that Ballmer fellow- I hear he’s got a thing for throwing stools at people.

Posted by: Daniel Nerezov | Sep 17, 2005 9:12:37 AM

My favourite web services:
- Google
- Gmail
- Bloglines
- del.icio.us
- Skype
- Wikipedia
- Flickr

I don't use Microsoft Office. I think the Microsoft software paradigm is obsolete. I can't wait for the Google OS, a real internet operating system...

Posted by: Dimitar Vesselinov | Sep 17, 2005 12:51:08 PM

Great post Fred.

Reasons why I think MS is "so over"...

As a developer I don't want to PAY to develop for their moving target of a platform.

Spyware/Adware/Crapware have forever tainted the MS brand.

MS doesn't get the Internet. Sure it's a cliche, but when I hear MS folk bragging about Hadi Partovi hacking out start.com during Tuesday meetings, yet 6 months later it still doesn't work in Safari and appears to have had very little incremental development, I have to think the "spirit" of Web 2.0 has escaped them.

OS X X86. It's not going to be anywhere near as big as Windows XP/2000/whatever but it will be much bigger than OS X PPC and will hit MS where it hurts.

Next-Gen gaming consoles may kill Windows gaming.

http://www.meebo.com

Losing the audio format war to Apple. They may still turn this one around with subscription services and mobile music, but increasingly heavy handed DRM strategies don't seem to point in that direction.

I could go on and on but I won't. Oh yeah, long before I was a NeXT/Apple guy I was a staunch MS advocate. They lost me when OS X blew Windows 2k out of the water in terms of development, user experience, security, standards...

Posted by: Toby | Sep 17, 2005 5:26:44 PM

Nice. Very Nice. Dead on post. You are one of a kind Fred. Your post rings true. I find your insight profound because it centers on two gravities: consumer and developer rather that corporate CIO with huge budget. The CIO shift to Consumer/Developer is occuring and Microsoft's CIO center of gravity is tipping. They still have a giant money base in Windows Pre-Loaded along with Office. Office will take another 5-7 years to become the Iomega Zip Drive of it's generation. Cheers.

Posted by: Marina Architect | Sep 17, 2005 8:22:59 PM

The list of companies selling preinstalled Linux is growing every day.

http://www.addonshop.com/
http://www.sub300.com/
http://www.ibexpc.com/
http://www.linare.com/
http://www.linspire.com/
http://www.linuxcertified.com/
http://www.microtelpc.com/
http://www.outpost.com/
http://shoprcubed.com/
http://www.systemax.com/divisions.htm
http://www.walmart.com/
http://www.xandros.com/
http://tuxmobil.org/
http://www.us.debian.org/distrib/pre-installed
http://www.linux.org/vendor/system/index.html

Posted by: cyber_rigger | Sep 18, 2005 3:19:52 AM

Keep living in your little dream world boys. I've been listening to this rubbish for the last 10 years,
'microsoft are dead',
'microsoft just dont get it',
'apple/linux/google (ENTER FASHIONABLE COMPANY OF THE DAY HERE) are killing microsoft',
'microsoft will be dead in 2-5 years' bla, bla, bla, bla.

Someday these predictions will have to come true, but I can't see it happening for a long time yet. Personaly I think the future is looking really bright for microsoft, i'm seeing more exciting stuff come from them, then the rest of the industry put together. Their competiters like google, mozzila, apple and the FOSS guys really need to up there game now, because microsoft has a lot of great stuff on the horizon, and they are raising the bar sky high.

Posted by: P Clacker | Sep 18, 2005 12:49:27 PM

Ajax (Advanced Java And XML) is NOT a Micro$oft technology

Posted by: David Russell | Sep 18, 2005 12:51:51 PM

The only ppl who use macs are women and fags you fags

Posted by: fun | Sep 18, 2005 2:37:04 PM

Check it out:

http://www.mozilla.org/projects/calendar/sunbird.html

We're getting closer...

Posted by: Matt | Sep 18, 2005 11:06:13 PM

My two cents, I beleive that microsoft understands the needs of the Web2.0 world, we might be inclined to think they might be late to the party, i beleive that they are arriving at the right time, when the adoption is extending...getting wide spread...getting to the consumer/end user...not catering only to GEEKDOM.

As for the comment of "but its not in their DNA" - Well there is change happening in that segement i defn see them making some real effort in that area. Bill gates / Steve Balmer on channel9 i beleive is an excellent start to becoming more open. will need to see how that pans out.

Finally looking at some of the plans of microsoft, i feel that they might not be of this "Organic World", but i think they will end up being a hybrid of both the Organic & Inorgnaic world, which i beleive will be a huge advantage.

Posted by: Prashanth Rai | Sep 19, 2005 3:34:29 AM

Netscape sold for $10 billion (at the close). I don't think its shareholders were complaining. Netscape "lost" to Microsoft because it failed to compete, became big and bloated incredibly fast, and its software really wasn't that good--especially the server apps. Microsoft has won consistently because 1) it takes advantage of competitor weaknesses (Apple, Lotus, IBM, Netscape) 2) it publishes most of its APIs so thrid party developers can build solutions around them and 3) it nurtures the 3rd part developer community. There's nothing new about making APIs public or free.

Google asked us two weeks ago to stop using their free Maps APIs because we sell the application (GiftWorks 2006) that uses it. I had contacted them about doing a press release, and they pointed out their license prohibits 3rd parties from using their APIs for any money-making purpose. Well, we make our money on our great software, not on their APIs or Google Maps.

It took us 15 minutes to switch over to Microsoft's Vrtual Earth. Microsoft understands that 3rd party commercial developers bring VALUE to its platform. Google doesn't appear to get that. And yeah, we should have read its license more closely, though I would think they would point something like that out on their dev site.

Microsoft's problem isn't innovation or open APIs; the problem is packaging the innovation in ways consumers and businesses can easily use and extend it.

Posted by: charlie crystle | Sep 19, 2005 7:46:39 AM

I agree with your, Fred. I think M$ is going to have a very good couple years due to the massive upgades the corporate world is going to make in terms of Vista and the new Office. However, I think they are going to see a slight consumer slip due to consoles and Macs (really, iPods). The extreme cash in the bank factor and the install base are going to keep them competetive and flush for a very long time, but the "web services" layer of Vista is going to be squashed by corporate IT at the firewall and proxy server and, therefore, little utilized in the "real" install base for Windows (at least not in an Internet-oriented sense).

@David Russell:

You said "Ajax (Advanced Java And XML) is NOT a Micro$oft technology". Just a quibble, but AJAX does not stand for Advanced Java and XML, but rather "Asynchronous Javascript and XML". The asynchronous is the key, as it allows for more "desktop-like" web apps. And, to be fair, Microsoft was using very similar technologies before just about anyone else with Active Desktop in Window 98. AJAX is not new in the slightest, just recently widely-adopted.

Posted by: scott partee | Sep 19, 2005 11:18:55 AM

"Netscape software really wasn't that good--especially the server apps."

I don't mean to be rude, but that's crack smoking talk right there. D

irectory Server is, to this day, the finest LDAP-based directory (and most widely-installed general purpose directory). You probably use it multiple times per day and don't even know it.

Calendar and Messaging server were fantastic and completely web-enabled, but due to Outlook client issues (M$ Desktop Monopoly at work)they never gained as much traction as they deserved.

Enterprise server and, subsequently, iPlanet Web Server/ Sun Java System Server was/is a phenomenally-capable, high performance web server.

In fact, I used to be "webmaster" for a very large site that was, at one time, running on 2 Sun E250s and Enterprise Server 3.6. When some consultants from Netscape came in to help us with some Netscape Application Server issues (which was, admittedly, a hulking piece of crap), they did some metrics and bench marking on those 2 servers and determined they were the two highest-output installed Netscape servers on the planet. They ran w/out a hitch and served up BellSouth.com with speed for 2 years before we migrated off of them to a new version (and, thankfully, a lot more servers!).

Posted by: Scott Partee | Sep 19, 2005 11:30:02 AM

I'm the founder of ChiliSoft (we made an app server that ran on Netscape's web server), and I'm saying Netscape web server, the suite, LiveWire, etc, we're in fact pretty crappy and didn't evolve substantially, and of course died after the founders and VC cashed out on the backs of the retail stock market and later, AOL shareholders. And their mail interface was fine for the tech-set, but it could never compete against outlook or Notes for usabilty, both of which suck for usability. Just an opinion, but an experienced based one. in fact, when we worked with ISPs (AT&T, Earthlnk, PSI) and portals like Excite and MySAP.com, we recommended Apache of Netscape because the web server had threading issues and couldn't scale linearly beyond 2 CPUs, and actually performed worse on an E450 wth 4 cpus. IIS didn't fare very well in those environments either, which is why we were brought in. Netscape's enterprise software strategy failed because it didn't live up to the hype; at some point you have to stabilize your innovations so the mainstream corporate world will rely on you. Plus their licensing model was screwy.

Posted by: charlie crystle | Sep 19, 2005 3:36:01 PM

Awesome! I loved the chilli soft! used it all the time. Nice to see you.

The fact that the web server performed worse on more CPUs makes sense: Apache does the same, actually (at least in my tests). But don't get me wrong: I'll take Apache over iPlanet/Sun/whatever any day.

Posted by: Scott Partee | Sep 20, 2005 6:16:03 PM

minor note:
Even Feld, in honeymoon with MS after the PDC, (a true believer!) says:

"Now – if we can only get them to say “Open Source” instead of “Shared Software Services” life would be a little easier."

http://www.feld.com/blog/archives/2005/09/2006_will_be_th.html

Posted by: vruz | Sep 20, 2005 11:53:44 PM

forgot to mention...

First read this:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_39/b3952008.htm

These guys who work at Microsoft think otherwise
http://minimsft.blogspot.com/2005/09/troubling-exits-at-microsoft-business.html#comments

Then have a look at these:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/compare.asp?Symbol=MSFT
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=MSFT&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=hp%2Caapl%2Cgoog%2Cadbe
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=MSFT&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=sap%2Corcl%2Cyhoo%2Cnok

Somebody's lying and it's not the stocks exchange.
Where's Microsoft **really** going ?
Nobody really knows.

Posted by: vruz | Sep 21, 2005 3:53:08 AM

Lots of issues being discussed here...CIOs / consumers / developers etc. But my thoughts center on my current experiences as a consumer of a new digital home system and my conclusion that MSFT will ultimately own the platform for the digital home because no other entity can develop an OS to support all the necessary hardware and peripheral consumer electronics products (both legacy and future hardware products).

I have been trying to buy a single system for my family room that runs HDTV, PVR features with playback in HD, DVD burning and playback of music and video, easy input of my digital pictures and digital home videos, music downloading, ripping, playback and synching with mobile devices, high-fidelity gaming, Wi-Fi, video-enhanced VoIP, etc etc. Unfortunately the media industry has not allowed non-off-air (i.e. non free broadcast) HD signals to be put into a PC yet because of fears of piracy so I have to go with a hybrid system of a HD Tivo for HD PVR playback and a Media Center PC for everything else, both connected to my big-screen LCD in the family room. I looked at Apple but they are further away than Microsoft on this.

Even though the media industry has not allowed Media Center to do it all today (due to business restrictions, not technical limitations), I can't see any OS at the center of it other than one from MSFT. As a former developer I love the open source movement and believe it has great power in lots of areas. But the complexity and mind-numbing drudgery of the software development effort to support and optimize all the different drivers required for the digital home is not going to be done by the open source development movement. Its just too painful to develop and test the drivers for all the different combinations and permutations of potentially-connected peripherals. I believe that that effort requires too much project management to be done by any entity other than MSFT. And what Joe Main Street will care about when installing his digital home system is that the stuff just plugs in and WORKS...no downloads of different versions of drivers, no work-arounds, etc. It just needs to work out of the box. And if through some user-error a problem occurs then there is a phone number they can call to get set straight.

Clearly Apple has been the gold standard of this simplicity but that's because they are a closed system. They don't have the complexity of thousands of independent hardware and software vendors' products all needing to interact. But the digital home will not be built from a closed hardware/software system like Apple's. The consumer electronics ecosystem is too complex for one closed system to provide for everything. I think it requires a closed system of software (like MSFT's) that supports thousands of different, competing consumer electronics hardware vendors.

For these reasons I think that ultimately MSFT will own the dominant platform for the digital home. They won't ever have best-of-breed in every category, but the majority of consumers (i.e. the non early adopters) will value the simplicity of plug-and-play over non-integrated best-of-breed.

I'm not sure what that means to the economics of the industry yet...my guess is that MSFT will never have a chokehold on the industry like they did in their heyday, but as the owner of the platform they will continue to thrive.

I do invest in technology startups but have not spent any cycles evaluating companies building digital home products and services, so my analysis is that of a somewhat-educated layperson. I'm interested to hear from both software and hardware developers on whether my hypothesis that an open source OS (or Google OS) will not be able to support the hardware and peripheral devices that will be necessary to make the digital home a reality.

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Posted by: ccc | Nov 11, 2005 10:08:56 AM

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