Analysis Paralysis

I was talking to an entrepreneur today and advised him not to surrender to "analysis paralysis".

It's tempting to want to analyze every option and figure out exactly the best approach before jumping in.

But it's the wrong way to go in most cases.

As a contrast, I attended a board meeting today where the CEO presented the board with a post-mortem on some decisions he made that turned out to be suboptimal. That was a stand up thing to do and the board appreciated it.  But I am not sure that the CEO in question did the wrong thing.

Because I believe that Teddy Roosevelt (one of my favorite Presidents) had it right when he said:

In any moment of decision the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing.

The CEO didn't do nothing.  He did something.  Some of what he did was wrong. But he realized it, changed course, and he's still a lot better off than if he did nothing.

Had he analyzed the situation for another 3 months, he wouldn't be better off.  He'd be no better than where he is today and possibly a lot worse.

I think action and risk taking is what separates great entrepreneurs from the pack. I am not advocating blind risk taking, but I am advocating making a decision based on less than perfect information and going for it. More often than not, you will be rewarded for doing that.

Comments

[Aaron]

It's promising to hear that, as I'm going through strategy planning right now, and at times fining myself caught up in--and stifledby--the intricacies of each scenario.
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As for the eBay email, I've noticed that if you hold your mouse over the link they want you to click, you'll find (because it IS fraudulent) that the url is not one for eBay (or PayPal or whomever). They utilize the same logos and even the proper links to things like the company's privacy statement in order to appear more legit.

[Bob Struble]

Agree 100%.

The academics call it a "bias for action" and it is equally important at large companies. There are all kinds of studies - McKinsey has a few - that analyze whether companies have it, and shows that those that do always perform better. This applies to individuals as well.

Bias for action is huge at a start up. We preach: do what you can to get good data for decision making, but do it quickly, make a decision and create forward momentum, we will correct course if we need to. Essential to success.

[Matt]

If by any chance you haven't read it already, you'd probably greatly enjoy Malcom Gladwell's "Blink", which discusses some themes very related to your posting - the power (and sometimes, pitfalls) of immediate and intuitive decision making through "thin slicing", vs. analyzing all options for an extended period of time before making the most informed decision.

[Peg]

If only I'd seen this and saved myself from having to read "Blink." Interesting, but not enough takeaways.

Just sent this to my management team, who are futzing with financial models; and my wife, who's still trying to figure out why I quit my job without an income stream in hand.

[Uday Subbarayan]

Agree.

The moment we know that there is a problem, the problem is solved. Most of the times the failure is "not knowing the problem till it gets big".

IMHO, fixing the problem is simpler than recognizing the problem.

Uday.

[David Gibbons]

fully agreed - great post

when i did time at amazon, one of the company's employee recognition awards was the "just do it" award - usually a mounted trophy - size 15+ nike pro-basketball shoes

"just do it" recognized the spirit of action you describe here. it is an award for just executing without being told to - or procuring cash to - and having a huge impact through simple innovations.

thing is - this spirit of innovation coexists (at amazon) with an environment of 100% numbers-driven decisions. Analysis is everywhere (there). And I think this probably a necessary precursor to _valuable_ innovations.

What businesses who do try to make analysis-driven decisions often do wrong is make a 'meal' out of the analysis - as discussed here - to the point that it's an "effort" - a massive once-off effort - or annual / quarterly 'chore' - and execution post analysis almost beyond contemplation ("we'll have to get the consultants in to do this !")

To get this (the "just do it" approach) right, analysis needs to be "a way of life" - to make smart decisions, you should Just Execute! - but do so after first "surrounding" yourself in the numbers - not through massive research projects but through daily review of your key indicators & their trends - and by listening to your customers! Analysis is seldom effective as a "project" - it should be a process, embedded in all operations, across the enterprise - or, for the start-up, it should be a daily review of the industry indicators identified in the business plan - i'm planning an off-shore operation - so, I try to watch the exchange rate in the various territories I'm interested in - I also monitor deals done in my space and grants awarded, to identify potential funding sources and benchmark valuations & market sizes. It's not a once-off effort - business moves too fast for that - analysis is a way of life!

Deciding, planning & executing is where the work is - might as well get on with it!

great post - motivating! tx!

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